SI
STONERIDGE INC (SRI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue was $217.9M, adjusted gross margin 21.9%, adjusted EBITDA $7.6M, and GAAP diluted EPS of $(0.26). Full-year 2025 guidance was maintained across all metrics .
- Versus consensus, revenue modestly beat ($212.4M est. vs $217.9M actual), EBITDA beat ($5.86M est. vs $7.08M actual), while EPS missed (($(0.17) est. vs $(0.26) actual)) due to ongoing end-market pressure; management expects Q2 performance to slightly increase versus Q1 as initiatives compound (estimates marked with asterisks; S&P Global).
- Operating performance improved quarter-over-quarter: adjusted gross margin expanded +210 bps, driven by ~220 bps material cost improvement and ~$2.5M lower quality-related costs; MirrorEye® and SMART 2 Tachograph set quarterly sales records, with MirrorEye up ~24% QoQ .
- Cash generation and balance sheet trends were favorable: free cash flow of $4.9M and inventory reduced by approximately $28M YoY; compliance net debt/TTM EBITDA at 3.97x with a year-end target of 2.0x–2.5x maintained .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Adjusted gross margin improved by a healthy 210 basis points…result of…material cost improvement (220 bps) and reduced quality-related costs (~$2.5M)” .
- “MirrorEye revenue increased by an impressive 24% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024,” with strong bus market sales and OEM ramp; SMART 2 Tachograph also set a quarterly sales record .
- Free cash flow of ~$4.9M and YoY inventory reduction of ~$28M reflect disciplined working capital execution (positive cash and leverage trends) .
What Went Wrong
- EPS missed consensus (($(0.17)*) vs actual $(0.26)) as end-market weakness and mix weighed on profitability; management continued cost actions but highlighted macro/tariff uncertainties that could affect demand (estimates marked with asterisks; S&P Global).
- Revenue was flat QoQ (Q1’25 $217.9M vs Q4’24 $218.2M) and down YoY (vs Q1’24 $239.2M) amid softer commercial vehicle and NA passenger volumes and lower off-highway sales .
- Quality-related costs remain a focal area despite improvement; Q4 was impacted by elevated warranty/quality costs, and management emphasized process changes to stabilize future outcomes .
Financial Results
GAAP results vs prior year and prior quarter
Adjusted performance and margins
Segment breakdown (Net Sales)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We delivered strong performance…adjusted gross margin improvement of 210 basis points and adjusted EBITDA and cash performance that soundly exceeded our expectations…MirrorEye revenue increased by an impressive 24% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024” .
- CFO: “We are maintaining our full year guidance ranges…Even considering the most recent external production forecasts, we expect to perform within our previously provided EBITDA guidance range” .
- CEO on tariffs: “Approximately 91% of…product sales [from Mexico] are USMCA certified and are currently not subject to tariffs…we have already secured…price increases…to offset…tariffs” .
- CFO on cadence: “We expect the second quarter performance will slightly increase compared to the first quarter…EBITDA to be slightly more back half weighted” .
Q&A Highlights
- Electronics momentum and margins: MirrorEye ramp (Volvo Europe), aftermarket bus interest; contribution margins typically 25–30% with linear margin progression expected through the year .
- Tariffs: Direct costs limited; policy changes (no stacking), USMCA exemptions; monitoring demand-side impacts and prepared to mitigate with sourcing/pricing .
- Inventory sustainability: Turns targeted to high single digits; improvements seen as sustainable even as top line grows .
- Manufacturing footprint: MirrorEye and Tachograph produced in Europe, reducing tariff exposure for those lines .
- MirrorEye outlook: No change to ~$120M FY 2025 mirror-eye revenue expectation; strong OEM and fleet momentum .
- Connected trailer: Limited customer evaluations late-2025; significant expansion expected in 2026 .
- Production forecasts vs guidance: Conservative planning within broad forecast ranges; confidence in achieving guidance .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Where estimates may need to adjust: Continued margin progression (material and quality cost reductions) and OEM MirrorEye ramps suggest upward bias to out-quarter EBITDA assumptions; persistent demand volatility and mix headwinds imply cautious EPS trajectory despite improved operations .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- MirrorEye and SMART 2 are structurally driving outperformance; record quarter and +24% QoQ MirrorEye growth highlight strengthening OEM adoption and aftermarket bus momentum .
- Margin expansion is credible and repeatable: +210 bps adjusted gross margin QoQ from material savings (~220 bps) and ~$2.5M lower quality costs; focus on built-in quality and structural cost control persists .
- Cash discipline remains a bright spot: $4.9M FCF, ~$28M YoY inventory reduction; leverage compliance ratio at 3.97x with maintained 2.0x–2.5x target by year-end .
- Guidance intact despite macro/tariff uncertainty; management anticipates slight Q2 uptick and back-half EBITDA weighting as initiatives compound and MirrorEye ramps .
- Tariff exposure manageable (USMCA certifications, sourcing/pricing strategies) but monitor demand-side impacts; mix and end-market softness can pressure EPS even as EBITDA improves .
- Near-term trading: Favor catalysts around OEM MirrorEye launch milestones and continued margin/cash execution; watch for QoQ margin/EBITDA progression and any tariff-demand headlines .
- Medium-term thesis: Camera monitor systems adoption, connected trailer pipeline, and structural cost improvements support revenue and margin expansion into 2026+; maintain focus on quality-related expense normalization .